Ontario’s new-home market just delivered one of the biggest housing headlines of the summer. New data released August 11, 2026 shows that 8,410 new homes were sold across Ontario in the second quarter, up about 130% from the same period last year. A report commissioned by BILD and the Ontario Home Builders’ Association estimates that 4,765 of those sales were incremental and attributable to the enhanced HST rebate program.
For GTA buyers, this raises an important question: has the opportunity in new construction finally become attractive enough to act? The rebate can materially reduce the upfront cost of qualifying new homes, while GTA new single-family benchmark prices have also fallen considerably from a year ago. BILD reported that June’s benchmark price for a new single-family home was $1,275,458, down 15.5% year over year, before accounting for any qualifying HST relief.
But there is a major divide hiding inside the headline. Low-rise homes have responded strongly, while the condo market remains much weaker. In June, the GTA recorded 902 new single-family sales, 36% above the 10-year average, compared with just 273 new condominium sales, which remained 85% below their 10-year average. That means buyers looking at condos may still have a very different negotiating environment from those shopping for new townhomes or detached homes.
For Realtors, this is a valuable client conversation because “new construction is dead” may no longer be accurate across every segment. Some buyers who dismissed new homes last year may now need to rerun the numbers using current pricing, incentives and applicable tax relief. Sellers should also pay attention: stronger new-home demand can eventually influence competition and pricing in nearby resale neighbourhoods.
The takeaway is not that every buyer should rush into a new build. It is that the math has changed enough to deserve a second look. For financially prepared buyers, the better question may now be: does a resale home still offer the best value, or have new-home incentives finally closed the gap?
Source: Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) & Ontario Home Builders’ Association, August 11, 2026.