Canada’s real estate market hit a fresh speed bump in March 2026. The Canadian Real Estate Association said national home sales fell from February levels, and CREA also downgraded its 2026 forecast, now expecting about 474,972 residential properties to change hands this year, which is only about a 1% increase over 2025 and below its earlier January forecast.
What makes this especially hot is the reason behind the slowdown. CREA’s economist said rising global economic uncertainty and a mid-March jump in fixed mortgage rates added pressure to a market that was already fragile. Reuters reported that this combination weakened buyer confidence and extended the slow start to the spring season.
For Ontario and the GTA, this matters because CREA’s latest forecast says price growth in Ontario is expected to be close to flat in 2026, even while the national average home price is projected to edge up about 1.5% to $688,955. That suggests Toronto-area buyers may continue to see a market where affordability pressure remains high, but price acceleration is still limited.
The big takeaway is that Canada’s housing market is still searching for direction. Instead of a strong rebound, the latest data point to a more cautious 2026, with buyers still highly sensitive to rates, uncertainty, and affordability. For GTA agents and consumers, that keeps market conditions interesting: activity can improve in pockets, but the broader recovery still looks uneven.