The newest GTA market numbers are giving buyers something to think about. In September, the average GTA home sold for $1,006,409, about 5.1% lower than a year ago. The benchmark price was also down 4.7%. For someone who was priced out last year, that difference can be meaningful.
But buyers are still cautious. Only 5,040 homes sold in September, down 9% from last year. Economic uncertainty, concerns about employment, inflation, and borrowing costs are keeping many would-be buyers on the sidelines.
Here is what makes the market interesting: new listings also dropped sharply—14.4% from last year. So while demand is soft, supply is shrinking too. That means buyers may have negotiating power today, but there is no guarantee the same selection will be available if confidence returns.
For sellers, this is not a market where overpricing works. Buyers are selective and payment-conscious. But sellers with a desirable property and realistic price may benefit from having fewer competing listings than they did a year ago.
The real question is therefore not simply, “Will prices fall more?” It is whether today’s combination of lower prices, less competition, and negotiating room creates a better opportunity than waiting for perfect conditions that may never arrive.
Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), September 2026 Market Watch, released October 6, 2026.