Canada’s housing recovery may take longer than many buyers expected. CMHC’s latest 2026 outlook anticipates slow economic growth, weak housing demand, declining home prices, fewer housing starts, and easier rental conditions this year. For anyone considering a home in the GTA, that raises an obvious question: should you buy now or wait for prices to soften further?
Waiting may appear attractive, especially when forecasts point to continued pressure on prices. Buyers may find more motivated sellers, greater negotiating room, and fewer rushed bidding situations. But a softer market does not guarantee that the perfect home will become dramatically cheaper—or that mortgage rates and household finances will improve at exactly the same time.
For sellers, this outlook reinforces the importance of realistic pricing. Buyers remain payment-sensitive and have access to more information than ever. Properties supported by recent comparable sales and strong presentation can still attract attention, while listings priced according to outdated expectations may remain on the market.
The outlook is also relevant to tenants and landlords. CMHC expects rental conditions to ease as new supply gives tenants more choice. That could help some households lease longer while they prepare to buy, but landlords may need to compete more carefully through pricing, presentation, incentives, and tenant retention.
The smartest decision is not based only on whether GTA prices may fall another few percentage points. Buyers should consider their timeline, monthly affordability, available savings, and the quality of the property. A financially comfortable purchase during a cautious market may be better than waiting for a “perfect bottom” that becomes obvious only after it has passed.