The Bank of Canada will announce its next interest-rate decision on July 15, and most economists surveyed by Reuters expect it to keep the overnight rate unchanged at 2.25%. Many also believe rates could remain at this level through the rest of 2026 and possibly well into 2027. For buyers who have spent months waiting for another meaningful rate cut, that forecast may be disappointing.
But waiting for lower rates does not always produce a cheaper purchase. When borrowing costs fall, more buyers often qualify for mortgages and return to the market. That can increase competition and place upward pressure on desirable properties. A buyer who saves on the mortgage rate later could end up paying more for the home itself.
The GTA market is already showing signs of stronger activity. June sales increased 9.4% from one year earlier, while new listings declined 12.9%. On a seasonally adjusted basis, sales rose from May while listings fell, suggesting conditions tightened during the spring.
For buyers with stable employment, sufficient savings and plans to remain in the property for several years, purchasing before another rate cut may still make sense. A mortgage can potentially be renewed or refinanced later, but the purchase price of the home cannot be renegotiated after competition returns. Buyers should base the decision on affordability today rather than assuming a future rate cut will solve everything.
The real question is not whether interest rates will fall next month. It is whether the right property is affordable under today’s payment, with room for unexpected expenses. Buyers who can comfortably manage the numbers may discover that waiting for perfect conditions means waiting while the market moves without them.